Press Release

2015 Presidential Election Poll

16 February 2015

Too close to call between Jonathan and Buhari

Abuja, Nigeria. February 16th, 2015 – Ahead of the coming 2015 presidential elections, a recent opinion poll commissioned by ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOIPolls Limited, has revealed a tightly contested race between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC); with a very significant proportion of swing voters either still undecided or seeking confidentiality. It is worth noting that all respondents interviewed in this poll are registered voters who had either obtained their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) or were still in possession of Temporary Voters Cards (TVCs).

From the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2015 presidential elections, the figures put General Muhammadu Buhari in a slight lead (32 percent) over President Goodluck Jonathan (30 percent); indicating a 2 percentage points lead. Interestingly, both candidates enjoy decent support across gender and age groups.

Some key highlights to note – on the average, Buhari enjoys groundswell support in the North-West and North-East geo-political zones; while Jonathan remains the beautiful bride of the South-South and South-East zones.  Interestingly, the high PVC collection rates in the North-West and North-East Zones (above 80% in several states) appear to have given Buhari the slight advantage over the incumbent President Jonathan as much lower PVC collection rates of below 60% have been recorded in several states in the South-East and South-South zones (Jonathan's area of strength) at the time of our survey. 

It is fair to suggest that this is a very keenly contested race and too close to call for two broad reasons: 1.) There remains a very significant proportion of voters (36 percent) who remain either undecided (21 percent) or seeking confidentiality (15 percent) as to their choice of candidate; and 2.) PVC collection rates are expected to improve from the low figures initially recorded in several states. If the elections had held as originally scheduled on 14 February, close to one-third of the electorate would have been unable to vote as indicated by the poll result. Indeed at least 60 percent of the electorate in Lagos State (the largest state in the Federation) would have been unable to vote.

Furthermore, it is key to note that the battle lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters as they would ultimately decide whether the incumbent retains his seat or Nigerians will witness a historic change of guard in the Aso Villa. Finally, the poll showed that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely (77 percent) and fairly (9 percent) certain that they would be voting in the presidential election.  

NOI Polls Limited is No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa, and works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA). It conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at

ANAP Foundation (ANAP) is a Non-Profit Organisation committed to promoting good governance. ANAP has been carrying out a series of Elections polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion research during election periods. ANAP conducted similar polls for the Lagos State Governorship & Presidential elections in 2011 and for the 2014 State Governorship elections in Ekiti State and also for the Kaduna, Lagos and Rivers State Governorship elections in 2015. More information on ANAP Foundation is available at