Press Release

LAGOS: Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s Lead might be Unassailable as Opposition Votes are Fragmented

07 November 2022

Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 governorship elections, a recent Statewide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOIPolls Limited was concluded in October 2022. The Poll revealed a significant lead by Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with  Azeez Olajide Adediran of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour of Labour Party (LP) both trailing behind distantly. 

The results showed a significant lead for Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu with 30% of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election were to be conducted today; 8%  proposing to vote for  Azeez Olajide Adediran (PDP) who fell in second place and Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour (LP) was a distant third with 4% of voters proposing to vote for him.

Governor Sanwo-Olu’s 22%-point lead at this early stage is very significant, as the opposition voters are fragmented and shared between 2 main challengers in the ratio 30:8:4.   

Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 30% and 26% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 35% of women are undecided versus 27% of male voters.

Poll Question: Suppose the governorship election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?



Senatorial Districts

Poll Ranking

Lagos West

Lagos Central

Lagos East

Babajide Sanwo-Olu (APC)






Azeez Olajide Adediran (PDP)






Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour (LP)






























                                                                                            Source: NOIPolls – End October 2022

The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts - 84% in Lagos West, 85% in Lagos East, and 89% in Lagos Central.

When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for Governorship, data gathered showed that 93% of the respondents were aware of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the APC, 67% were aware of Azeez Olajide Adediran of the PDP and 23% were aware of Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour of  LP.  All other candidates scored below 20% in terms of name recognition.

Furthermore, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: - Fixing of bad roads (22%), Insecurity (16%), Economy (14%), Infrastructure (11%) and Unemployment (8%).

30% of the respondents would love to see their preferred governorship candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, personality recognition and competence check amongst others.

It is worthy of note that 55% of those aged 18-25, 63% of those aged 26-35, 72% of those aged 36-45, 76% of those aged 46-60 and 86% of those aged 61+ responded they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years.

The Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next governorship election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the March 2023 elections.   

While this Governorship Poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that the race is not completely over as undecided/swing voters would ultimately have their say on which candidate emerges as Governor of Lagos State in the 2023 governorship elections.

In summary, our October 2022 Polls indicate that the race is not completely over, as the undecided voters and those who refused to reveal their preferred candidate are large enough to turn the tables. However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 3 leading candidates only.



Atedo N A Peterside CON,

President & Founder, Anap Foundation



NOIPolls Limited is No.1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. It conducts periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at

Anap Foundation is a Non-Profit Organization committed to promoting good governance. Anap Foundation has been carrying out a series of Election polls since 2011 with the main objective of providing information on opinion research during election periods. Anap Foundation conducted similar polls for the Presidential elections in 2011, 2015, 2019 & 2022 and for the Ekiti State Governorship elections in 2014 & 2022 and also for the Lagos, Kaduna and Rivers State Governorship elections in 2015, as well as Sokoto, Kano, Rivers & Lagos in 2019. Our Governorship Polls have a sample size of 500. Sampling was done via stratified random sampling and interviews were conducted via mobile telephone calls in the preferred language of the respondent. The Margin of Error for the 2022 Governorship Polls is 6.57%. More information on Anap Foundation and our approved Polling Methodology is available at